نقش توزیع درآمد در اثرگذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی: رویکرد PSTR

مختاری فر, دلنیا; محسنی زنوزی, سید جمال الدین; شهبازی, کیومرث

doi:10.48308/jem.2025.238160.1965

	نقش توزیع درآمد در اثرگذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی: رویکرد PSTR
اقتصاد و الگو سازی
دوره 15، شماره 4 - شماره پیاپی 60، اسفند 1403، صفحه 171-202 اصل مقاله (1.04 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/jem.2025.238160.1965
نویسندگان
دلنیا مختاری فر¹؛ سید جمال الدین محسنی زنوزی^* ²؛ کیومرث شهبازی³
¹دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
²دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه، تهران، ایران
³استاد گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران
چکیده
نحوه‌ی مدیریت درآمدهای حاصل از فروش نفت و اثرات آن بر رشد اقتصادی، از چالش‌های روز اقتصادهای متکی بر منابع طبیعی از جمله کشور ایران است. نتایج تجربی از مطالعات قبلی که تأثیر درآمد نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی در کشورهای نفت‌خیز را مورد بررسی قرار داده‌اند، سوالات زیادی مطرح کرده است که چرا درآمد نفتی اثر رشد مورد انتظار را در برخی از این کشورها ایجاد نکرده و حتی در مواردی مانع رشد اقتصادی شده است. از این‌ رو پژوهشگران به بررسی شرایط کشورها برای پاسخ به این سوال پرداخته‌اند. بنابراین، این مقاله سعی دارد با فرض غیرخطی بودن رابطه‌ی بین درآمدهای نفتی و رشد اقتصادی و در نظر گرفتن شرایط توزیع درآمدی کشورها در نحوه‌ی این ارتباط، این سوال بحث برانگیز را بررسی کند. برای این منظور، از روش رگرسیون انتقال ملایم تابلوئی برای هشت کشور نفت‌خیز حوزه‌ی خلیج فارس در طول دوره‌ی 2000-2023 استفاده شده است. نتایج تجربی با تایید غیرخطی بودن این رابطه و تعیین حد آستانه‌ای نابرابری درآمدی، تاکید دارند که اگر میزان نابرابری کمتر از حد آستانه‌ای باشد، درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی تأثیر مثبت دارند و در نابرابری‌های بالاتر از حد آستانه‌ای، افزایش درآمدهای نفتی سبب کاهش رشد اقتصادی می‌شود.
کلیدواژه‌ها
توزیع درآمد؛ درآمد نفتی؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ رگرسیون انتقال ملایم تابلوئی؛ ضریب جینی
عنوان مقاله [English]
The Role of Income Distribution in How Oil Revenues Affect Economic Growth: PSTR Approach
نویسندگان [English]
Delnia Mokhtarifar¹؛ S. Jmaledin Mohseni Zonouzi²؛ Kumars Shahbazi³
¹PhD Candidate in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
²Associate Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
³Professor of Economic, Faculty of Economics and Management, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
چکیده [English]
The management of revenues from oil exports and its effects on economic growth is one of the challenges facing resource-based economies, including Iran. Empirical results from previous studies examining the impact of oil revenues on economic growth in oil-rich countries have raised many questions about why oil revenues have not generated the expected growth in some of these countries and, in some cases, have even hindered economic growth. Consequently, researchers have investigated the conditions of these countries to answer this question. Therefore, this study aims to examine the controversial question by assuming a nonlinear relationship between oil revenues and economic growth while considering the income distribution conditions of the countries. For this purpose, a panel smooth transition regression model has been used for eight oil-rich countries in the Persian Gulf during the period 2000 to 2023. The empirical results confirm the nonlinearity of this relationship and identify a threshold level of income inequality, emphasizing that if the level of inequality is below the threshold, oil revenues positively impact economic growth, whereas at higher levels of inequality, an increase in oil revenues leads to a decrease in economic growth.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
economic growth, Gini index, income distribution, oil revenues, PSTR

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نقش توزیع درآمد در اثرگذاری درآمدهای نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی: رویکرد PSTR