مدلسازی توزیع مکانی ناقلین بیماری تب دانگ در ایران با استفاده از مدل آنتروپی بیشینه و الگوریتم ژنتیک | ||
| نشریه سنجش از دور و GIS ایران | ||
| دوره 16، شماره 3 - شماره پیاپی 63، 1403، صفحه 69-90 اصل مقاله (4.3 M) | ||
| نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی | ||
| شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.48308/gisj.2023.103268 | ||
| نویسندگان | ||
| سجاد حقی1؛ محمد کریمی* 2؛ احمد علی حنفی بجد3 | ||
| 1کارشناس ارشد سیستم اطلاعات مکانی (GIS)، دانشکدة مهندسی نقشهبرداری، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 2دانشیار گروه GIS، دانشکدة مهندسی نقشهبرداری، دانشگاه صنعتی خواجه نصیرالدین طوسی، تهران، ایران | ||
| 3استاد گروه بیولوژی و کنترل ناقلین بیماریها، دانشکدة بهداشت، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی و خدمات بهداشتی و درمانی تهران، تهران، ایران | ||
| چکیده | ||
| سابقه و هدف: تب دانگ، یکی از بیماریهای واگیر و ویروسی است که از طریق دو گونه پشة آئدس اجیپتی و پشة آئدس آلبوپیکتوس منتقل میشود و بهسرعت در جهان در حال گسترش است. افزایش دمای کرة زمین، تغییرات اقلیمی و الگوی بارندگی و نیز گسترش شهرنشینی در اغلب نقاط دنیا بر گسترة انتشار گونههای مذکور مؤثر بوده و باعث گسترش مناطقی جدید برای حضور این گونهها شده است. این در حالی است که بخشی از کشور ایران در برابر این گونه و حضور آن آسیبپذیر تلقی شده و لازم است گسترة انتشار احتمالی آن برای اجرای برنامه کنترل جمعیت اینگونه مشخص شود. مدلهای مطلوبیت زیستگاه مجموعهای از مدلهای الگوریتم مبنا هستند که قادرند پراکنش مکانی برای استقرار انواع گونهها را پیشبینی کنند. هدف اصلی این پژوهش مدلسازی توزیع مکانی ناقلین این بیماری در ایران است که با توجه به نبود دادههای ناقلین کافی در کشور، از دادههای ناقلین موجود در سطح جهان و همچنین در سطح قارة آسیا، در دو مقیاس مختلف استفاده شد. از مهمترین جنبههای نوآوری این پژوهش میتوان به استفاده از لایة هتروژنتی بهعنوان یک عامل کمکی برای تحلیل نقاط حضور و کاهش خودهمبستگی مکانی و بهکارگیری و مقایسة دو مدل پراکنش گونة متکی به دادههای حضور برای انتخاب روش مدلسازی بهینه اشاره کرد. مواد و روشها: مدلهای مورد استفاده در این پژوهش شامل روش آنتروپی بیشینه (MaxEnt) و یک نوع الگوریتم ژنتیک تحت عنوان گارپ (GARP) هستند. این مدلها میتوانند ارتباطات غیرخطی و اثرگذار بین گونهها و متغیرهای محیطی را تشخیص دهند و آنها را برای توسعة مدلهای پیشبینی به کار گیرند. همچنین لایههای اطلاعاتی مورد نیاز شامل لایة نقاط حضور گونهها و لایههای متغیرهای مستقل زیستمحیطی هستند. در مجموع 2780 نقطة حضور برای هر دو گونه (1926: گونة آئدس اجیپتی و 854: گونة آئدس آلبوپیکتوس) با مراجعه به پایگاههای اطلاعاتی مختلف جمعآوری شد. بهمنظور کاهش خودهمبستگی مکانی بین دادههای نقاط حضور ناقلین تب دانگ، لایة هتروژنتی توپوگرافی با استفاده از SDM toolbox در ArcGIS ساخته شد و نقاطی که از نظر ارتفاع دارای شرایط یکسانی هستند از فرایند مدلسازی حذف شدند. بهمنظور بررسی میزان همبستگی متغیرهای زیستی از تابع PCA در ArcGIS استفاده شد و متغیرهایی که میزان همبستگی بین آنها بالای 75/0 بود، از تحلیل حذف و متغیرهای تراکم جمعیت، اقلیم، تراکم پوشش گیاهی، ارتفاع و کربن آلی خاک لحاظ وارد مدل شدند. در نهایت با استفاده از روش آنتروپی بیشینه (MaxEnt) و یک نوع الگوریتم ژنتیک تحت عنوان گارپ (GARP) میزان مطلوبیت زیستگاهی در سطح جهان با قدرت تفکیک مکانی 5 کیلومتر برای هر دو گونه مدلسازی شد. با توجه به دقت بالای روش MaxEnt، با استفاده از این روش، مطلوبیت زیستگاهی قارة آسیا با قدرت تفکیک 900 متر برای هر دو گونه مدلسازی شد. نتایج و بحث: مقادیر سطح زیر منحنی (AUC) برای گونة آئدس اجیپتی 942/0 و برای گونة آئدس آلبوپیکتوس 948/0 محاسبه شد. نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که استانهای شمالی و جنوبی کشور مطلوبیت زیستگاهی بالاتری را برای هر دو گونه دارند، با این تفاوت که گونة آئدس اجیپتی در قسمتهای جنوبی بهسمت شرق در حاشیة دریایی عمان دارای احتمال پراکندگی بالاتری است. در پیادهسازی روش MaxEnt برای گونة آئدس آلبوپیکتوس، استانهای موجود در غرب ایران نیز مطلوب تعیین شدند که این مهم در مقیاس کوچکتر بهصورت درست مدلسازی نشده بود. در بهمن 1399 متأسفانه تعداد کمی پشه و تخم پشة آئدس اجیپتی در شهرستان بندر لنگه کشف شد که دقیقاً این پژوهش آن را پیشبینی کرده بود. نتیجهگیری: از نتایج این مطالعه میتوان در راستای برنامهریزی برای مدیریت جمعیت این حشرات ناقل برای کنترل بیماری همزمان با پایش جمعیتها در فصول اپیدمی استفاده کرد. | ||
| کلیدواژهها | ||
| تب دانگ؛ توزیع مکانی؛ پشة آئدس اجیپتی؛ پشة آئدس آلبوپیکتوس؛ مدل آنتروپی بیشینه؛ ایران | ||
| عنوان مقاله [English] | ||
| Modeling the Spatial Distribution of the Vectors of Dengue Fever in Iranusing the Maximum Entropy Model and Genetic Algorithm | ||
| نویسندگان [English] | ||
| Sajjad Haghi1؛ Mohammad Karimi2؛ Ahmad ali Hanafi Bojd3 | ||
| 1Msc, Department of GIS, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 2Associate Prof, Department of GIS, Faculty of Geodesy and Geomatics Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology, Tehran, Iran | ||
| 3Prof, Department of Vector Biology & Control of Diseases, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran | ||
| چکیده [English] | ||
| Dengue fever is Chickenpox is a contagious and viral disease that is transmitted by two species of Aedes Egyptian mosquitoes and Aedes albopicus mosquitoes and is spreading rapidly in the world. The main purpose of this study is to model the spatial distribution of carriers of this disease in Iran. Due to the lack of sufficient carrier data in the country, carrier data available worldwide and also in Asia, in two different scales were used. Among the most important aspects of this research, we can name the use of heterogeneous layer as an auxiliary factor to analyze the presence points and reduce spatial autocorrelation and the use and comparison of two species distribution models based on presence data for Selecting the optimal modeling method. In this regard, first, using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) and a type of genetic algorithm called GARP (GARP), the level of habitat suitability in the world with a spatial resolution of 5 km for both species was modeled. To evaluate the mentioned models, the variables of population density, climate, vegetation density, altitude and soil organic carbon were considered. Due to the high accuracy of the MaxEnt method, using this method, the habitat suitability of the Asian continent with a resolution of 900 m was modeled for both species. The values under the curve (AUC) for the two types of carriers were calculated to be 0.9. The results showed that the northern and southern provinces of the country have higher habitat suitability for both species, with the difference that Aedes aegypti species in the southern to eastern parts of the Oman Sea coast has a higher probability of distribution. In implementing the MaxEnt method for Aedes albopicus, the provinces in western Iran were also identified as desirable, which was not properly modeled on a smaller scale. In February 2016, unfortunately, a small number of mosquitoes and AIDS mosquito eggs were discovered in Bandar Lengeh, which was exactly what this research had predicted. The results of this study can be used in line with planning for population management of these vector insects to control the disease at the same time as monitoring populations during epidemic seasons. | ||
| کلیدواژهها [English] | ||
| Dengue fever, Aedes albopictus, Aedes aegypti, MaxEnt, GARP, world, Iran | ||
| مراجع | ||
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